Friday, November 21, 2008

I am getting too cynical in my old age

I just read on Yahoo News that the Dow and S&P 500 are both up because Mr. Obama will supposedly nominate Timothy Geithner as Treasury Secretary in the next administration. Since Mr. Geithner is currently president of the New York Bank of the Federal Reserve, that makes him one of the foxes that caused this current crisis. I feel like a hen stuck outside of the shed....

If it weren't already past the closing bell, I would have sold this rally. There is NO way Mr. Geithner (or for that matter, Mr. Obama) has a magic wand to make things better.

My magic market prediction: the Dow Jones Industrial Average at 5000 at least, and possibly as low as 1 "share" of the DJIA equaling the cost of 1 ounce of gold on the physical delivery market (not the polite fiction of the spot commodities markets). Since I've now made a prediction, it's important to understand that I am best at saying what the market should do and what it might do eventually, and usually 100% wrong about what it'll do in the short term.

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